According to global ratings agency S&P, Dubai’s population is projected to reach 4 million by 2026, fueled by a robust influx of expatriate professionals seeking better job opportunities and investors looking to benefit from high returns in the emirate’s expanding economy.
S&P estimates the emirate’s GDP per capita to be approximately $38,000 (Dh139,460) in 2024. As of the end of 2023, the resident population—excluding those commuting from other parts of the UAE—stood at 3.7 million. The agency’s analysts predict that this figure will reach 4.0 million by 2026, primarily due to strong expatriate inflows.
As a regional hub for finance, tourism, and trade, Dubai has attracted significant investment across various sectors over recent years, which has bolstered GDP growth and created numerous job opportunities. This growth has also drawn many millionaires from around the globe to the city.
Since the start of 2024, Dubai’s population has increased by over 134,000, reaching 3.789 million as of October 16. Since January 2021, the city has seen an increase of more than 378,000 residents, mainly attributed to the influx of foreign professionals, workers, and investors.
Dubai, along with Abu Dhabi and Sharjah, is expected to experience a surge of over 150 percent in the migration of centi-millionaires between 2024 and 2040. Ranked 15th among the top 50 cities globally, Dubai is currently home to 212 centi-millionaires and 72,500 millionaires, according to Henley and Partners.
In line with the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 announced last year, the emirate aims to double its economy over the next decade, increasing foreign trade to Dh25.6 trillion and creating thousands of new job opportunities.
S&P analysts project that real GDP growth will remain around 3 percent on average from 2024 to 2027, following a growth rate of 3.3 percent in 2023. The services sector—including real estate, hospitality, and financial services—is expected to drive Dubai’s growth, bolstered by nationwide social and economic reforms. Business-friendly regulations, a streamlined visa regime, and the success of long-term residency visas will further encourage new business ventures in Dubai.
